Date: 12th March 2010 at 12:39am
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With just over eight weeks of the season remaining, supporters of sides at the wrong end of the table can be forgiven for speculating about exactly how many points their team might need in order to avoid the drop.

There’s never a way to be sure, but it is possible to make an educated guess based on statistical evidence (and it’s a bit of fun).

Below are two scenarios. The first is based on each team’s form since the start of the season, and the second takes into account how teams have been performing since the turn of the year.

If each team continued to win the same number of points per game as they have so far this season, the bottom of the table would look like this when it’s all over, meaning Wycombe would require 50 points to be certain of survival.

Brighton…….51 pts
Hartlepool….51 pts
Orient……….50 pts
Oldham……..50 pts
Tranmere…..49 pts
Gillingham….49 pts
Exeter……….43 pts
Southend…..43 pts
Wycombe…..38 pts
Stockport…..31 pts

However, taking into account the fact that some teams have improved since the turn of the year and some are apparently in freefall, if each of the strugglers continued to win the same number of points per game as they have since 1st January, the bottom of the table would eventually look like this, meaning Wycombe would need 49 points to be sure of avoiding the drop.

Carlisle……..52 pts
Tranmere…..52 pts
Orient……….52 pts
Hartlepool….50 pts
Oldham…….49 pts
Gillingham…48 pts
Wycombe….40 pts
Exeter…….. 39 pts
Southend… .36 pts
Stockport…..33 pts

So, whichever way you look at it, the Chairboys apparently need to find at least another 20 points from their 11 remaining games, which equates to 5 wins and 5 draws, 6 wins and 2 draws, or just 7 wins!

It all looks highly unlikely, but you never know. A win at Oldham on Saturday followed by another over Exeter at Adams Park next weekend, and things would suddenly look a whole lot brighter!

The great escape starts on Saturday at Boundary Park – Come on Wycombe!


One Reply to “How many points do Wycombe need to avoid the drop?”

  • Oh to finish 4th from bottom. We (Stockport) can only dream of those dizzy heights. See you in Division 4 next season Chairboys.

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